The Roundtable: Two Elections, Two Surprises, One Big Message
Editor's Note: Welcome to our monthly roundtable discussion. Each month, our five student editors will come together to debate a major issue shaping our world. This transcript has been lightly edited for length and clarity.
Minwoo Jung: This month, two of the world's largest and most important democracies held elections, and both produced surprising results that are worth digging into. In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi won a third term, but his BJP party lost its parliamentary majority in a stunning rebuke. In Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum won a historic landslide victory to become the country's first female president. On the surface, they seem like very different outcomes, but I think they both tell us something important about the state of global democracy.
Anthony Min: Let's start with the markets, because they tell a clear story. The Indian stock market had a massive crash the day the results came in. Investors had priced in a huge Modi victory and the continuation of his pro-business, strongman style of governance. The surprise result—a forced coalition government—introduced a huge amount of uncertainty, and markets hate uncertainty. In Mexico, the reaction was the opposite. The landslide victory for Sheinbaum and her Morena party was so overwhelming that investors are now worried about a lack of checks and balances, fearing that the new government will have the power to make radical, anti-business constitutional changes. So you have two cases where the "surprise" was in opposite directions, but both created anxiety.
Saerom Kim: The Mexican result is so fascinating to me. On one hand, it’s this incredibly inspiring moment of progress. A woman has finally broken through the highest glass ceiling in a country with a deep history of machismo. That’s a huge cultural victory. But on the other hand, as Anthony said, her party now has so much power—a potential "supermajority"—that it raises real fears about democratic backsliding and the erosion of opposition rights. It's a progressive victory that could lead to a less pluralistic system. It's a real paradox.
Minwoo Jung: The Indian result is a paradox of a different kind. Modi is still the Prime Minister, but his aura of invincibility has been shattered. The lesson seems to be that even the most charismatic, powerful, and religiously nationalist leader can be humbled by the economic anxieties of the voter. The BJP's campaign was all about Hindu pride and the inauguration of the Ram temple. The opposition focused on unemployment and the cost of living. The voters, it seems, cared more about the price of onions than the temple.
Yehee Jung: From a public health and social perspective, that's actually a very hopeful sign, isn't it? It suggests that in a functioning democracy, you can't govern on ideology and identity alone. At the end of the day, voters hold you accountable for their material well-being. It was a rejection of the idea that you can distract people from their empty pockets with appeals to nationalism.
Yonghyuk Choi: It's like in sports when a team spends a huge amount of money on one superstar player but ignores the fundamentals of building a balanced roster. You can have the most famous player in the world, but if you don't have a solid defense and a good bench, you're not going to win the championship. Modi was the superstar, but his team—the economy—wasn't performing for a lot of people, and they lost their commanding lead.
Minwoo Jung: That's a great way to put it. So we have two stories. In Mexico, the ruling party's economic promises delivered them a potentially dangerous amount of power. In India, the ruling party's ideological project was checked by the economic anxieties of its people. Both are a powerful reminder that in a democracy, the economy is often the ultimate arbiter of power.
Final Thoughts
Yonghyuk Choi: The Indian election was a classic David vs. Goliath story, proving that even the most dominant champions can be taken down by a smart, focused opponent.
Anthony Min: The markets in both India and Mexico were spooked by the same thing: political uncertainty and the potential for a government to have either too little power or too much.
Saerom Kim: Mexico's result is a wonderful, but complicated, victory for feminism; it’s a huge step forward for women in a country that now has to worry about democratic backsliding.
Yehee Jung: The Indian election was a hopeful sign that even in a highly polarized environment, voters will ultimately hold leaders accountable for their basic economic well-being.
Minwoo Jung: Both elections, in their own way, were a powerful demonstration of the resilience of democracy and the ability of the voter to deliver a stunning surprise.
What do you think? Do these elections make you more optimistic or pessimistic about the state of global democracy? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.
