In my first column I promised to listen in quiet places, and I named one of them: registration numbers. Last month the numbers arrived, and they are quieter than the hot takes.
On September 14, CIRCLE, the youth civic research center at Tufts University, published its analysis of state voter files as of September 1. Its headline finding is that 2 percent more young people, ages 18 to 29, are registered for these midterms than at the same point in 2022. Two percent. Not a surge and not a collapse; CIRCLE itself calls it a modest increase. Nearly 50 million Americans in that age group are eligible to vote this year.
The national number hides more than it shows. Of the 42 states with reliable age data, 25 have more young people registered than in September 2022. The largest gains are in South Dakota, up 35 percent, Utah, up 28, Minnesota, up 25, and New Mexico, up 24. Six states, among them Massachusetts, Florida, and Tennessee, show double-digit declines. By race and ethnicity, registration is up 17 percent among Asian American and Pacific Islander youth and 6 percent among Latino youth, and down 9 percent among Black youth.
The newest voters, the 18- and 19-year-olds most people mean when they talk about Gen Z showing up, are down 1 percent nationally, in the 22 states with usable data. CIRCLE attributes that decline to Texas, where registration in the age group is down 47 percent. In Massachusetts it is up 84 percent; in Virginia, 56.
CIRCLE attaches caveats, and they deserve repeating because they are the difference between reading data and quoting it. These are percentage changes in the number of registered young people, not registration rates. They depend on when each state updates its voter files, which varies widely. And in a group as small as 18- and 19-year-olds, percentages swing dramatically.
The second set of numbers is what young people say. In a survey CIRCLE and When We All Vote ran in January and February, of 5,549 people aged 18 to 29, 56 percent said they were extremely likely to vote this year. That sounds enormous until you read CIRCLE's own comparison. In 2018, 34 percent said the same, and youth turnout was an estimated 28 percent. In 2024, 54 percent said so, and turnout was about 47 percent. Saying and doing move together, loosely, and never at the same height. The researchers themselves warn against assuming high participation, since surveys like this one tend to reach the most engaged young people. For context, youth turnout in midterms hovered around 20 percent from the 1990s until 2018.
The survey is most useful on why. The sharpest divide was not party, though the party gap is real: 68 percent of young Democrats, 49 percent of young Republicans, and 38 percent of young independents said they were extremely likely to vote. The sharpest divide was belief. Among respondents who think their vote matters, 70 percent were extremely likely to vote; among those who disagree, 31 percent. Asked what would make them more likely to participate, 48 percent chose less influence of corporations and money on politicians. Only 11 percent chose easier registration and voting.
So what does the quiet say? First, that "young voters" is an average, not a person. A 35 percent jump in South Dakota and a 47 percent drop among Texas's newest voters are happening in the same election, and any national claim about the youth vote is smoothing over both. Second, that the obstacle young people name most is doubt, not paperwork: doubt about whether the system answers to them at all. That is a harder problem than a registration drive can solve, and it cuts across parties.
CIRCLE says it will publish turnout data in November. Until then, I am treating 2 percent as what it is: a real number, small and honest, and much less exciting than what you will hear about young voters on television this month. It is a better place to stand.
